Looking at the graph for Kariba water levels below it
would appear that something happened in December 2014 or January 2015
increasing the draw down by about 0.75m per month (opening of the new Zambian
station?). This means that the extra draw down since January will be in
the region of 7.5m beginning November and 8.25m beginning of December. If
you put that on the graph the lake will be at minimum operating level
sometime in November 2015. So the generators will have to be switched off
until January/February when we can expect inflows again. With inflows
over previous draw downs averaging 0.5m per month from beginning January to end
June it seems that whatever increased the draw down is unsustainable.
If whatever caused this extra draw down is stopped
immediately we might just make it to the next inflows in January with about a
metre to spare.
Regards
Alan
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